← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
decks
9
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
66
33-27-6
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1287
· range 1127–1533
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1172
Q3 1416
1685
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 43.7% | -2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 11 | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 46.5% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.6% | -4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 58.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.7% | +8.0 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.4% | +9.9 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.3 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
